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Prediction for CME (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-14T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28157/-1
CME Note: Bright nearly full halo CME with the bulk portion to the west in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Current SOHO data gap. The source is a X2.8 class flare from AR13514 (N05W54) peaking at 2023-12-14T17:02Z. The source is visible across all SDO/AIA wavelengths with clear dimming signatures to the SE of the eruption in SDO/AIA 193/171/211. Corresponding brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. An EUV wave is clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 traveling to the SE towards disk center and along the western limb. The EUV wave appears to correspond with a large shock in the coronagraph imagery. Post-eruptive arcades are visible around 2023-12-14T19:00Z in SDO/AIA 171.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T07:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T01:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-14 21:12
Radial velocity (km/s): 974
Longitude (deg): 44
Latitude (deg): -17
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes: Fit to Stereo-A only, no C3 available
Space weather advisor: DW

Lead Time: 41.28 hour(s)
Difference: 6.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-15T14:15Z

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